Tuesday, July 10, 2012

The IMF has lowered the forecast for economic growth in the U.S. in 2012 and 2013

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the forecast for economic growth in the U.S. in 2013. to 2.25% from 2.4% projected earlier. The IMF estimates that in 2012 U.S. GDP growth of 2%, not 2.1% as previously thought. This was reported in the media organization for the annual review of the U.S. economy. In this regard, the IMF urged the U.S. authorities as soon as possible to agree on all aspects of fiscal policy, which since the beginning of next year, dramatically tougher in the absence of appropriate action by the U.S. Congress. The U.S. economy is poised for "fiscal gap" - said the IMF. This term was first used by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, describing the situation at the expiration of tax benefits automatically increase government spending. That it should come early next year, believe in the fund. "We need to resolve the resulting uncertainty and immediately increase the national debt ceiling by following the path of reducing the budget deficit does not prevent the growth of the U.S. economy."

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The pace of global economic growth are constrained by the crisis in Europe

The pace of global economic growth are constrained by the crisis in Europe. This is stated in the review of the international rating agency Fitch. It is estimated the agency, global GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2012, while in 2013 growth rate of 2.8%, and in 2014 - 3.1%.
The review notes that a systemic crisis in the euro area, as well as downward pressure on the ratings of the euro area is unlikely to weaken until the European leaders did not represent a reliable and realistic "road map" to increase the budget of financial and political integration in the region. "The European debt crisis intensified again in the second quarter of 2012 against the backdrop of worsening prospects for economic growth, accelerate the outflow of private capital from the periphery of the eurozone countries, as well as improve returns on bonds and the increased number of protests against austerity measures" - the experts of the agency.

The growth of the German economy will accelerate in the II half of 2012, the euro area as a whole is much worse

The growth of the German economy will accelerate in the second half of 2012. This is stated in the published mid-June monthly economic review of the Central Bank (CB) of Germany. In the first quarter of 2012. Germany's GDP has grown in comparison with IV quarter of 2011. only 0.5%, as compared with I quarter of 2011. - 1.2%. According to experts the Bundesbank, the increased demand for goods and services within the country and the growth of exports of German goods in the States outside the euro area should not only compensate for the decrease in revenues from exports to the eurozone, but also to give new impetus to the German economy to develop. In particular, Germany is counting on growth in demand for German products in the region such as Asia. According to recent data, in April 2012. exports to Asian countries grew by more than 10%

Friday, June 22, 2012

Markets in Europe finished trading downturn in domestic news

Leading European stock indexes finished trading on Friday the negative dynamics on the background of weak statistics from Germany and the rating action Moody's, according to data exchanges.

By the end of trading the German DAX 30 fell by 1.17% - to 6268.66 points. The French CAC 40 fell 0.75% - to 3090.90 points. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.99% and closed at 5511.14 points.

Do bidders continue to raise concerns about the situation and prospects for the eurozone economy. On Friday it became known that the business climate index in Germany, Europe's largest economy, declined in June compared to May by 1.6 percentage points - up to 105.3 points - a minimum of two years of the mark. The analysts were expecting the index to reduce to only 105.6 points.
In addition, investors are paid attention to the message that the international rating agency Moody's on the night of Friday downgraded the ratings of 15 banks and companies engaged in securities transactions. Among European financial institutions, which have been taken negative rating action, Credit Suisse Group AG, UBS AG, Societe Generale, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas, Barclays.

At the same time, positive on the market brought the ECB decision to facilitate access to financial transactions of banks liquidity by easing collateral requirements for loans. These news have increased the value of the shares of financial institutions in Europe.

In addition, on Friday, Minister of Economy of Spain, Luis de Gindos announced his intention to make a formal request to Spain for financial assistance amounting to 100 billion euros on Monday, June 25.

Friday, June 8, 2012

The price of gold fluctuates on macroeconomic statistics from the U.S.

The price of gold fluctuates on Friday against the backdrop of ambiguous macroeconomic data on wholesale inventories, and foreign trade balance of U.S. in April, according to data exchanges.

As of 20:35 GMT August gold futures fell by 0.08% - up to 1586.40 dollars per troy ounce. Earlier Friday, precious metals rose in price to 1593.60 dollars per ounce.

The volume of stocks at wholesalers in the U.S. in April rose by 0.6% to $ 483.5 in cash terms billion, although more modest growth projected at 0.5%.

Worse prognosis were data on the U.S. external deficit. In April, a decrease of $ 2.5 billion compared with the revised figure in March to $ 50.1 billion, while analysts expected a reduction to 49.5 billion dollars.

At the same time, the fall in the value of gold has slowed down on the statements of U.S. President Barack Obama, who called on EU leaders to act more decisively to improve the situation with the debt crisis. "The last two years I have tried to express complaints to colleagues in Europe, but now, I think they should show greater unity to consolidate finance and deal with the crisis" - Obama said at a press briefing at the White House.

Monday, June 4, 2012

The U.S. economy is preparing for the new recession

U.S. Congressional Budget Office has once again started talking about a possible reduction of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2013 by 1.3 percent.

Experts believe that up to half of GDP will be reduced if the time will come into force on planned tax increases and budget cuts.

Recall that in December of this year, ending the so-called "Bush era" and the tax increase as a consequence.

Fears that higher taxes will slow down the recovery, expressed including the head of the Fed.

The American company will give 56 million for fraud

The current U.S. subsidiary of Australian construction company Lend Lease Construction to pay a fine and compensation for fraud, $ 56 million.

Note that the relevant agreement was approved by the Prosecutor's Office. The company Lend Lease (US) Construction, formerly known as Bovis Lend Lease has admitted that in 1999-2009 inflated bills sent to customers for their services.

Lend Lease is also admitted to abuses associated with government programs to support small businesses and businesses owned by women or minorities

Sunday, June 3, 2012

The volume of industrial production in the U.S. in February 2012 did not change compared to January

In the U.S., industrial production in February 2012 did not change compared with the previous month. This was reported by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA. Analysts had expected the index to increase by 0.4%. Compared with February 2011 Industrial production in the U.S. in February 2012 increased by 4%. Coefficient of utilization of industrial capacity in February 2012 in relation to the previous month decreased by 0.1 percentage points and amounted to 78.7%. A year earlier the rate was 76.5%.
In January 2012, industrial output in the U.S., according to revised data, rose by 0.4% monthly basis (previously reported that the rate has not changed). Coefficient of utilization of industrial capacity was 78.8% (previously reported on the index at 78.5%).
In January 2012 the negative trade balance increased to U.S. 52.6 billion dollars compared with a revised value for December 2011, according to a report released today by U.S. Department of Commerce The experts predicted an increase in the aforesaid rate only to 48.4 billion dollars as Analysts note that the January deficit is the biggest monthly deficit since October 2008. In December 2011 the negative trade balance of U.S., according to revised data, amounted to $ 50.4 billion reported earlier that the deficit was 48.8 billion dollars
In January 2012 the volume of imports reached 233.4 billion U.S. dollars (an increase of 2.1% compared with the previous month), the volume of exports - 180.8 billion (+1.4% the previous month). At the same annualized U.S. imports grew by 8.4%, and export - by 7.7%.
The U.S. unemployment rate in February 2012 as compared with the previous month remained unchanged at 8.3%. Analysts predicted that this figure will be just 8.3%. The official U.S. unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly 3 years.
The growth rate of consumer prices in the U.S. in annual terms in February remained at 2.9% in January, according to the Ministry of Labour of the country. In monthly terms, consumer price growth in the world's largest economy in February, taking into account seasonal factors accounted for 0.4%, while in January, an increase of 0.2%. Thus, the data coincide with the forecasts of analysts in both the annual and in monthly terms.
The most significant growth in the reporting month showed fuel prices, increased just 6% after rising 0.9% a month earlier. Energy as a whole grew by 3.2%, while in January, growth was more modest - just 0.2%. Food prices have not changed in February after rising 0.2% the previous month.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy industries, rose on a monthly basis by 0.1%, while year - by 2.2%. These coincided with the forecasts on an annualized basis, and went in the month - analysts had expected growth of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, the entry of Russia into the WTO and granting it the status of permanent normal trade partner of the U.S. - is "a gift is not Russia, and U.S. farmers, manufacturers and workers." This opinion was expressed on Monday, the U.S. ambassador in Moscow, Michael McFaul, speaking at the Institute of World Economics. Peterson in Washington on "Russia after the presidential election: what does this mean for the United States."
He stressed that without the abolition of the notorious Jackson-Vanik amendment would give the U.S. position in Russia to its competitors. The Ambassador also pointed out that this issue has nothing to do with the topics on which the U.S. and Russia continue to disagree. Among them he mentioned the situation around Syria, defense issues and the pace of democratization in Russia. However, in his opinion, this should not prevent cooperation in other areas, where the interaction in the interests of both parties, especially in economy and trade

GDP of the big twenty-up in 2011 grew by only 2.8%

The combined GDP of the "Big Twenty" (G20) on the basis of 2011 grew by only 2.8%, significantly slowed down compared with last year. Tempv growth in 2010 amounted to 5.0%. These statistics - the first of its kind - March 14, announced the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Fastest growing in the G20 countries in the past year the Chinese economy (plus 9.2%), India (7.3%) and Saudi Arabia (6.8%) and negative dynamics was noted only Japan (minus 0.7%).
In the IV quarter of 2011 economic growth in the G20 was 0.7% qoq - against 0.9% in the III quarter. In the aggregate indicator hides mixed picture of national economies, the authors report. For example, U.S. GDP increased by 0.7% in the IV quarter of 2011 compared to 0.5% in the III quarter. Significantly accelerated growth in India (from 0.9% in the III quarter to 1.8% in the IV quarter) and Indonesia (from 1.4% to 2.1%), but has slowed in China (from 2.3% to 2 %). In Japan, there was a downturn of 0.2% after growth of 1.7% in the III quarter. GDP of the EU fell by 0.3% (0.3% in quarter III), which was the first time with the II quarter of 2009.
Aggregate statistics on the GDP of the G20 is issued for the first time in an international initiative to address the data gaps (Data Gaps Initiative), agreed by ministers of finance and central bank control of the "twenty". The process is coordinated by an interdepartmental group on economic and financial statistics, which consists of representatives of the IMF (Chairman), Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank, the EU statistical agency Eurostat, OECD, UN and World Bank.
In early March 2012 the IMF said the weakening of the threat of sharp slowdown in the global economy. The reason for this decision Foundation sees the measures taken to exit from the eurozone debt crisis, but the organization warned that global growth is moving "downward".
The World Bank also expects the global slowdown in 2012 against the backdrop of European debt problems. World Bank predicts that the global economy will grow only by 2.5% in 2012 (although in the June report voiced forecast at 3.6%). In 2013, global growth is expected to reach 3.1%.
According to the UN the growth of world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 may slow down dramatically, if not taken the necessary measures to create jobs and prevent the growth of the sovereign debt of countries. At the end of last year, the UN adjusted the outlook for the world economy in 2012 downward. The report noted that Europe's problems, coupled with the economic downturn in the U.S. could lead to global recession.
Figures for G20 calculated using data from the European Union, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, UK and USA. In a report published today in Russia there are no data for the IV quarter of 2011.
At the G20 in GDP growth in 2012 could significantly affect the economic slowdown in China's development. Thus, the largest Japanese broker Nomura on Tuesday improved assessment of China's GDP growth this year from 7.9% to 8.2%. Forecast growth in the first quarter of 2012 revised to increase from 7.5% to 7.8%. Despite the observed in recent months, a sharp slowdown in China, the overall situation in the Chinese economy was better than expected, analysts said Nomura.
According to their estimates, the People's Bank of China (Central Bank of the country) will reduce the base interest rate by a quarter percentage point in March, and the bank reserve rate - by 0.5 percentage points in April to support economic growth.
Last week, China's State Council announced that it will strive to increase GDP by 7.5% this year, which is the lowest figure since 2004. In 2011, the pace of economic growth amounted to 9.2%, slowed down compared to 10.4% in 2010. In the recent years, Beijing is set to the economic growth of 8%

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According to preliminary data of euro area GDP grew by 1.5% in 2011

Euro zone economy is facing a serious crisis of sovereign debt, has grown up to 2011. by 1.5%. These are the preliminary data published by the European statistical office Eurostat. At the same time for the IV quarter Eurozone GDP fell by 0.3%, which was better than forecasts of experts who had expected a decline of 0.4%. Not the last role was played by GDP data block major economies - Germany and France, published this morning, too, were better than expected.
In the IV quarter of the recession (negative GDP for two consecutive quarters or more) remained following countries: Belgium, Greece, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands. At the same time in Austria, Germany, Great Britain, Romania, Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Spain, there were reductions of GDP.
The quarterly decline in Eurozone economy recorded the first time since the II quarter of 2009. Most economists predict a recession in the euro area in 2012. Thus, according to the International Monetary Fund, the euro area GDP in the current year will be reduced by 0.5%. In the 27 EU Member States GDP in the IV quarter of 2011. a quarterly basis fell by 0.3%, and by the end of 2011. increased by 1.6%.
Statistical Office of Germany and France have also published preliminary data on GDP growth up to the IV quarter of 2011. and for the entire past year. Two locomotives of the EU economy showed mixed trends, but in both cases it was better than market expectations.
The most pleasant surprise was presented the French: the second-largest economy in the EU has grown in the last three months of 2011. 0.2%, as reported by the country's National Statistics Office Insee. It was a complete surprise to the market - analysts had expected the index to decline by 0.2%. At the same time of the year the French GDP grew by 1.7%, almost laid in government forecast - 1.75%. The Government expects GDP growth to slow significantly this year - up 0.5%.
GDP EU's largest economy - Germany - declined in the IV quarter of 2011. on the same 0.2%. Nevertheless, even with the negative dynamics of the Germans were pleasantly surprised by the market, which is expected to fall deeper (0.3%). At the same time increased the Bureau of Statistics estimate of GDP growth in quarter III: on some data, it grew by 0.6% (previously reported growth of 0.5%).
As noted in the materials Statistical Office, the decline in GDP in the IV quarter of 2011. influenced by the deterioration of trade balance and a slight reduction in consumer spending. However, capital investments made a positive contribution to the GDP dynamics. Analysts note that the reduction of Germany's GDP was softer than expected in the fall. "Taken together with the unexpectedly good data on the GDP of France, a moderate reduction in GDP in Germany tells us that the result for the entire euro zone will be closer to the upper boundary for the IV quarter forecast" - quoted by Reuters specialist Alina Shuyling ABN Amro.
In January, the Ministry of Economy of Germany once again revised its forecast for growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012. downward. According to the latest assessment of the German government, this year the EU's largest economy will add only 0.7% instead of the previously projected 1%. Thus, the engine of the economic power of the European Union sharply slowing down: in 2011. GDP growth was 3%, and in 2010. reached 3.6%.
According to expert agencies, international trade will not be able to contribute to an increase in GDP this year. The cause was the weakening of economic growth in Germany's trading partners. Experts believe that the contribution of international trade in the GDP will be negative (-0.3%), whereas a year earlier, the industry contributed to the growth rate of 0.8%. At the same time experts of the Ministry expects a significant slowdown in both imports and exports. So, if in the past, imports grew by 7.2% and 8.2%, but this year the growth will be only 3% and 2% respectively. However, in 2013. The situation should improve, and GDP growth accelerated to 1.6%.
Industrial output in the euro area in December last year decreased by 1.1% on a monthly basis and by 2% - in year. This was reported by the European statistics agency Eurostat. Thus, the data differed from the forecasts of analysts who had expected the index in December will fall 1.2% in both monthly and annual terms. Industrial output in the EU27 in December decreased by 0.9% in annual terms and by 0.6% - in the month.
The volume of production of durable goods in December on a monthly basis rose by 0.2% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the EU. The volume of non-durable goods in December compared to November remained unchanged in the euro area, but grew by 0.4% in the EU. Output in the energy sector in the euro area fell by 2% in the EU - by 1.2%. Production of intermediate goods in the eurozone declined by 0.7%, while in the EU - by 0.2%. The largest decline in industrial production in December was recorded in Malta (-2.9%), Germany (-2.7%), Greece and Latvia (-2.4%), whereas the maximum growth rate registered in Denmark (3 , 3%), Finland (+2.6%) and Ireland (+2.5%).
Trade surplus in the euro area in December 2011 amounted to 9.7 billion euros. This was also reported Eurostat. Analysts had expected the trade deficit will amount to 3.5 billion euros. The volume of exports of 17 countries belonging to the eurozone, in December 2011 on an annualized basis rose by 9%, and imports - by 1%. In monthly terms, seasonally adjusted exports of the Eurozone in December 2011 rose by 0.1% while imports decreased by 0.9%. Trade surplus in 27 states - members of the European Union (EU) in December 2011, according to preliminary data, amounted to 1.7 billion euros, while in December 2010 the deficit was 12.1 billion euros.
At the same time in December 2011 to December 2010, the export of 27 states - the EU increased by 11%, and imports - has not changed. In monthly terms, seasonally adjusted exports in the EU27 grew up in November 2011 by 1.4% while imports decreased by 0.6%. In November 2011 the euro area's trade surplus, according to revised data, amounted to 6.3 billion euros previously reported a positive balance of 6.9 billion euros. In November 2011 the trade deficit in the EU amounted to 7.5 billion euros.
As a result of 2011 overall trade deficit in the euro area amounted to 7.7 billion euros compared with 14.7 billion euros in 2010. In the EU, the deficit in 2011 amounted to 152.8 billion euros, which is slightly smaller than the 159.5 billion euros in the previous year.

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