Sunday, June 3, 2012

According to the forecast Saxo Bank in 2012 could be decisive since the global financial crisis

Experts predict the Danish investment bank Saxo Bank, 2012 could be decisive since the global financial crisis. The pace of global economic growth on the basis of 2012 amount to 3.0%. This is stated in a research report published by the Bank. The growth rate of world GDP in 2011 were higher.
In 2012, a storm for us, who can break out in the first quarter, as the tension is growing rapidly, approaching the critical point - said the chief economist at Saxo Bank Steen Jakobsen. His words were presented in a press release from the bank. Three key components are already known: the combination of endless European crisis, reducing the total world demand growth against the backdrop of speculative bubbles in the sector of public debt and social tensions. These factors will not leave the side, so this year could be a turning point. The recent crisis has mobilized governments and central banks that were forced to use all available policy instruments, and even invent new ones for large-scale interventions in all sectors of the economy to maintain liquidity of its members half-dead, to avoid even the hint of a "collapse."
Saxo Bank's chief economist said that 2012 could be a decisive year since the global financial crisis, ie, since 2008. In the Middle East and North Africa have a very clear conditions for the emergence of a "perfect storm." The situation in the region, exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties - indicates Jacobsen.
He believes that the Middle East and North Africa successfully pass through the test. But before that they will face a period of volatility. "It forces us to take up a defensive position with regard to investment in the region, and not because of fear of the future. On the contrary, we see a high probability of a favorable level for entry into the market later this year ", - says the chief economist at Saxo Bank.
Given that EU leaders have not acknowledged the fact that the debt crisis of the public and banking sectors related to the solvency and liquidity is not a deficit, analysts believe Saxo Bank: A new crisis is inevitable, therefore, the bank holds a negative outlook for the European economy. And yet, the coming changes can make 2012 a year of optimists, because, ultimately, the world starts moving in the right direction.
As commented on the annual forecast Steen Jakobsen: "The storm is approaching, but that is no reason to panic. We expect big changes in 2012 and are optimistic about the future. It is recognized that there is still a quarter of a transfusion of a sieve on the part of politicians, whose counterproductive actions will lead to a critical point. world economy slowed down in 2011 because the volume of trade did not grow, and government incentives lose their effectiveness, in 2012, little has changed in this regard. Advanced economies will suffer from sluggish domestic demand for background programs fiscal consolidation and high unemployment, while emerging markets will feel the decline in foreign trade and the need to stimulate domestic demand, forcing central banks to start a policy of monetary accommodation. "
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund, analysts predict a slowdown in global growth in 2012 to 3.3% versus 3.8% in 2011. The World Bank has reduced the forecast for global growth in 2012 from 3.6% to 2.5%. Earlier, the British bank HSBC experts have revised assessment of the dynamics of world GDP in 2012 from 2.6% to 1.9%.

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